FAST TRACKING THE PARADIGM SHIFT FROM FOSSIL FUEL DRIVEN ECONOMY TO RENEWABLE ENERGY: A CLARION CALL TO NIGERIAN MECHANICAL ENGINEERS
A LECTURE DELIVERED BY (LATE) DR. MAIKANTI KACALLA BARU, FNSE, FNIMechE, FNSChE, GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR, NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION AT THE 12TH EDITION OF THE MECHANICAL ENGINEERS DISTINGUISHED LECTURE (MEDL) ORGANIZED BY THE NIGERIAN INSTITUTION OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS (NIMechE)
1. I am most delighted to be in the midst of my esteemed professional colleagues and other key stakeholders and players in other spheres of economic life to deliver the 12th Distinguished Lecture of our dear Institution – The Nigerian Institution of Mechanical Engineers.
2. This annual event provides a forum for interaction with professional colleagues and members of the other professions in the public and private sectors of the Nigerian economy, to share thoughts, experience and perspectives on topical issues relating to the practice of our noble profession in relation to the socio-economic transformation of our dear Nation.
3. The theme of this year’s lecture “FAST TRACKING THE PARADIGM SHIFT FROM FOSSIL FUEL DRIVEN ECONOMY TO RENEWABLE ENERGY: A CLARION CALL TO NIGERIAN MECHANICAL ENGINEERS” is apt considering the dynamism of the energy landscape. The energy competitiveness map of the World is evolving, rapidly affecting countries, companies and consumers alike.
4. It is my hope, that my thoughts and perspective at this auspicious occasion will stimulate thoughts and inspire confidence of both up-coming and practicing Mechanical Engineers and other members of the public on the critical role of mechanical engineering in building our dear Nation.
5. In the course of delivering this lecture, I will present:
o A cursory analysis of the global energy scenario, critical drivers and uncertainty.
o A brief appraisal of Nigeria’s energy resources.
o The Gains of migrating from an energy intense economy to an energy efficient economy.
o The Development of renewable energy in Nigeria.
o The role and giant strides of NNPC in renewable energy.
o A clarion call to Nigerian mechanical engineers on renewable energy development for our Nation’s energy sufficiency, job and wealth creation.
The Global Energy Scenario – Critical Drivers and Uncertainty
6. Ladies and Gentlemen, It is an indisputable fact that Energy plays a critical role in facilitating improved living standards around the World.
7. The Global energy consumption entails all energy harnessed from every energy source applied towards human endeavours across every sector in every Country. Being the power source matrix of civilisation, World Energy consumption has deep implications on all spheres of human life.
8. Recently, the International Energy Agency published its World Energy Outlook tagged “the World in Transformation” where It highlighted four large-scale shifts in the global energy system:
- o The rapid deployment and falling costs of clean energy technologies: The growth in solar PV capacity in 2016 was larger than for any other form of generation since 2010, costs of new solar PV have come down by 70%, wind by 25% and battery costs by 40%.
- o The growing electrification of energy: Spending by the World’s consumers on electricity approached parity with their spending on oil products.
- o The shift to a more services-oriented economy and a cleaner energy mix in China. China’s role as the World’s largest energy consumer is being reaffirmed with the installation of over 50,000MW new Solar PVs in 2017 alone. China is also leading the charge towards a renewable future. The Country’s total spending topped US$100 billion by 2015, which accounted for over a third of the total global investment. Other Countries also saw significant increases in their green investment from 2014 to 2015.
- o The resilience of shale gas and tight oil in the United States, cementing USA’s position as the biggest oil and gas producer in the World even at lower prices.
9. A further cursory stocktaking of the global energy resources also indicates the following:
- o E-storage has witnessed unprecedented changes due to reduced batteries costs and increased industry requirement to manage system volatility.
- o Marine: 500MW of commercial marine energy generation capacity is in operation and another 1,700MW is under construction, with 99% of this accounted for by tidal range.
- o Uranium and Nuclear: Global uranium production increased by 40% between 2004 and 2013, mainly because of increased production by Kazakhstan, the World’s leading producer. As of December 2015, 65 nuclear reactors were under construction with a total capacity of 64,000MW. Currently, there are more than 45 Small Modular Reactors under development and four Reactors under construction.
- o Waste-to-Energy: Despite the fact that Waste-to-Energy (WtE) occupies less than 6% of the total waste management market, the global WtE market was valued at approximately US$25billion in 2015 and is expected to reach US$36billion by 2020. The emerging prospects of the Waste to Energy market also demonstrate its viability as a sustainable energy resource in the coming decade.
- o Hydropower: Hydropower is the leading renewable source for electricity generation globally, supplying about 71% of all renewable electricity at the end of 2015. The global hydropower capacity increased by more than 30% between 2007 and 2015.
- o Oil: Oil remained the World’s leading fuel, accounting for 32.9% of global energy consumption. Roughly 63% of oil consumption is from the transport sector. Oil substitution is not yet imminent and is not expected to reach more than 5% for the next five years. Unconventional oil recovery accounts for 30% of the global recoverable oil reserves and oil shale contains three times oil as conventional crude oil reserves, which are projected at around 1.2 trillion barrels.
- o Natural Gas: Natural gas is the second largest energy source in power generation, representing 22% of generated power globally and is the only fossil fuel whose share of primary energy consumption is projected to grow.
- o Wind: Global wind power generation reached 432,000MW in 2015, around 7% of total global power generation capacity (420 GW onshore, 12 GW offshore). A record of 63 GW was added in 2015 alone and total investment in the global wind sector was US$109 billion in 2015.
- o Coal: Coal production decreased with 0.6% in 2014 and with a further 2.8% in 2015, the first decline in global coal production growth since the 1990s. Coal still provides around 40% of the World’s electricity. However, climate change mitigation demands, transition to cleaner energy forms, and increased competition from other resources are presenting challenges for the sector.
- o Carbon Capture and Storage: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is an essential element of any low carbon energy future and industrial future, but policy remains the main issue, not technology. There are 22 large-scale CCS projects currently in operation or under construction around the World, with the capacity to capture up to 40 million tonnes of CO2 per year (MTPA).
- o Geothermal: Geothermal global output is estimated to be 75 TWh for heat and 75 TWh for power, but is concentrated on geologic plate boundaries.
- o Bioenergy: Bio-energy is the largest renewable energy source with about 14% out of 18% renewables in the energy mix and supplies 10% of global energy supply.
To be continued…